Oscar Predictions: December

Awards season is in full effect. These are whom I believe are ahead in the Oscar race as of this moment. Things will most likely change after the DGA & WGA nominations, and the SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes are awarded. Therefore there will be an updated prediction list next month. 

Best Film

*Slumdog Millionaire

The Dark Knight

Milk

Frost/Nixon

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Spoilers include WALL-E, Doubt, and Revolutionary Road. Wall-E has a very strong possibility winning more awards than some on the list, although the "Animation" hurtle is very steep. Revolutionary Road has been sinking of late. Doubt is solid but seems mostly viable for acting awards instead of best picture.

Best Actor

*Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)

Sean Penn (Milk)

Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)

Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

I believe Penn, Langella, and Rourke are locked. Eastwood, not so much, be he's fricken Clint Eastwood so he gets an automatic huge push. Spoilers include Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button) & Leonardo Dicaprio (Revolutionary Road).

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)

*Angelina Jolie (The Changeling)

Meryl Streep (Doubt)

Kate Winslet (The Revolutionary Road)

Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

Very confident in these picks. It's Kate Winslet's year and the rest seem almost assured. Spoilers include Melissa Leo (Frozen River) and Kristen Scott-Thomas (I've Loved You So Long).

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)

*Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

Josh Brolin (Milk)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)

James Franco (Milk)

Not so sure about these picks. I believe everyone except Ledger is vulnerable. Spoilers include Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) & Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire) although I believe the Downey's surprise buzz slims Patel's chances. 

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)

*Viola Davis (Doubt)

Marissa Tomei (The Wrestler)

Taraj P. Henson (Benjamin Button)

Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Cruz and Davis are locked and will probably win. Henson, once a front runner, is now very vulnerable. Spoilers include Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married).

Best Director

Gus Van Stant (Milk)

Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)

Ron Howard (Front/Nixon)

David Fincher (Benjamin Button)

*Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

I may get stoned for not including Christopher Nolan (Dark Knight), but I think the superhero stigma will be too hard for the movie to overcome. The Dark Knight will get lucky for Best Film nod, but will get shafted in Director and Screenplay.

Adapted Screenplay

Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)

John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)

*Eric Roth (Benjamin Button)

Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon)

Justin Haythe (Revolutionary Road)

Original Screenplay

Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)

Dustin Lance Black (Milk)

Andrew Stanton (Wall-E)

*Woody Allen (Vickey Cristina Barcelona)

Synechdoche New York (Charlie Kauffman)

 

I know my Charlie Kauffman pick is sketchy, but the Oscars love him. Even though I picked Woody Allen to win, the Original Screenplay race is very tight. All of them have advantages. Jenny Lumet has Oscar Gold in her family, Black will get a boost from Hollywood's Proposition 8 defiance, Stanton will get sympathy for Wall-E getting shafted, and don't forget Brad Bird won last year with Ratatoutille.  

THE BLACK PERSPECTIVE:

The Oscar race this year is not as racially diverse as it has been in the past. I believe Jenny Lumet is mixed which would make her the third African-American ever to be nominated for Best Screenplay behind Spike Lee & John Singleton. Viola Davis and Taraj P. Henson in Best Supporting Actress- and that's it besides Best Song (up in the air for Beyonce). This is still more than last year when Ruby Dee in American Ganster was the only black. I can't say that Blacks are getting shafted this year. Most heavyweights: Washington, Berry, Freeman, Whitaker, etc. merely didn't show up or played very lackluster roles. Will Smith and Spike were close, but Seven Pounds & Miracle at St. Anna got panned. The only other black films that really stood a chance were The Secret Life of Bees & Cadillac Records which got very little buzz after premiering. Even the African American Film Critics Association skipped over blacks to award Jolie, Langella, and The Dark Knight they're best of awards.